Where did it go wrong for Adley Rutschman?

By: Mason McDowell

Adley Rutschman, the former top prospect in baseball has struggled mightily over his last two seasons, but it wasn’t even that long ago that he was the best catcher in baseball. Heading into the 2026 season, Rutschman is clearly the X-factor for the Orioles. Adley looks to reclaim his status as the king of the catcher position. Let’s figure out if he can do it.

In 2022, Adley Rutschman made his MLB debut, and in just 113 games, he posted a whopping 5.6 fWAR with a slash line of .254/.374/.435 with a 134 WRC+, all while having an elite defensive season. This led to fans buying into the hype, and with good reason. He followed up with another elite season, this time really solidifying himself as the centerpiece of the rebuild in Baltimore. He slashed .277/.374/.425 and posted an almost identical 5.5 fWAR. Although he saw a slight regression at the plate, Rutschman was actually one of the more unlucky hitters in baseball.

The most interesting part of this entire story of regression has been the decline of his defense, on top of his batting struggles. While he’s still a good defender, he has seemingly lost his elite status behind the dish. Upon his debut, Rutschman was a 100th percentile blocker along with a 93rd percentile framer; those numbers have dipped all the way down to 61st percentile and 76th percentile, respectively. His fielding run value as a whole dropped from 15 all the way down to 2. Defensive analytics can be funky, but I think we would all agree these numbers pass the eye test.

Now, there definitely are some contributing factors. In 2025 alone, he dealt with a left oblique strain that led to him being placed on the 10-day IL in late June, and then in mid-August, he would deal with a right oblique strain that would land him back on the injured list. There were also some rumors floating around that he was playing with a banged-up hand that never really got a chance to heal, which could have contributed to this disastrous season.

There is one part of Adley’s game that has stayed consistent, and that is his elite plate discipline. He posted a strikeout rate of 15.6% and walked at an 11% clip while continuing to post elite in-zone contact rates. Heading into the 2026 season, most projections have him finding his groove again, but not quite finding that elite status again. I do believe that Adley will bounce back to an extent, but unfortunately, I don’t see him reclaiming his status as the player that we were once promised. I do expect the defense to come back because I refuse to believe that it just disappeared, but the Orioles desperately need Adley to be at the center of their success, especially with free agency approaching fairly soon and top catching prospect Samuel Basello slated to be on the opening day roster.